SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN – The first storm of the season could kick-off the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season as early as next week according to a number of weather watchers.
Soualiga Newsday Weather Watch 2018 has been monitoring chatter amongst meteorologist and some long-term forecast weather models are indicating we could see Tropical Storm Alberto merge off the coast of Florida sometime next week.
The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1. According to Brian McNoldy who works in cyclone research at the University of Miami’s world-renowned Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), says there have been over the years a number of pre-season storms such as Arlene in 2017, Alex 2016, Bonnie 2016, Ana 2015, Alberto 2012 and Beryl 2012, all forming before the official June 1 start of the season.
Crown Weather recently reported the following” It is looking increasingly more possible that we will see tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean as we get into the middle and later parts of next week.
“All of the most recent data suggests that this will occur and it is something that we are going to have to really watch. In addition to this, the latest forecast guidance are pointing towards a track that would take this system into the eastern Gulf of Mexico next weekend.
“Looking at the latest model guidance – All of the major global model guidance are now showing tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean in about a week from now. These models include the GFS model, the Canadian model and the European model guidance. Given the overall weather pattern that I am expecting for next week, I think the guidance are starting to really latch onto the tropical development idea and it may be correct in this thinking.
“The GFS model guidance has been the most consistent in showing tropical development and is currently forecasting that low pressure will initially develop over the southwestern Caribbean early next week that slowly moves north-northwestward reaching the northwestern Caribbean by about next Thursday. From there, the GFS model guidance forecasts this system to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by next Friday and next Saturday.
“The Canadian model guidance forecasts tropical development to occur in the northwestern Caribbean next Thursday and next Friday that moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and then across central and south Florida next weekend.
“The European model guidance seems to indicate that tropical development may begin to occur by about Wednesday of next week that crosses westernmost Cuba as a tropical storm next Friday.
“From there, the European model guidance forecasts this system to move into the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm next Saturday that approaches the eastern Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area of northwestern Florida next Saturday night and next Sunday. This type of track would bring heavy rain and winds of up to tropical storm force to a large part of the Florida Peninsula starting next Friday and continuing into next weekend,” Crown Weather concludes.
SOUALIGA NEWSDAY REPORT – WEATHER WATCH 2018