SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN – The first hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic season Barry has fizzled out, but the season still has four and a half months to go and the peak of the season still has to come. The next two names on the list for the season are Chantal and Dorian.
All is Quiet
Crown Weather reported on Monday that for now and up to the end of July: “Looking beyond all of this, it is possible that we could see no tropical development right through all of next week as well. After that, the tropical development chances look to increase as we close this month and open up the month of August.”
Tropical system could Impact Lesser Antilles
Crown Weather says that early August the Lesser Antilles could experience its first tropical weather system for the season according to the long-term weather forecast model. “It appears that upward motion across the Atlantic Basin will increase by late this month leading to an increase in overall favorable environmental conditions. The very long range CFS model continues to show these favorable conditions and has been very consistent in showing a tropical system to impact the Lesser Antilles between August 1 and August 5.
Second tropical system could Impact Lesser Antilles
“In addition, the CFS model also shows a second tropical system potentially impacting the Lesser Antilles around mid-August. In fact, the CFS model shows this second tropical system ultimately impacting the Bahamas and riding up the US East Coast between August 17 and August 20.”
Potential storm activity in October
Crown Weather adds that October could also see storm activity during the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. “So, while model guidance like the CFS model will never, ever get the exact details of the weather right, there are some concerning signals in the data that suggest that August, September and maybe even part of October could be quite busy.
“The forecast El Nino is not going to happen and its influence on the Atlantic Basin is now starting to fade. In addition, the Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature profile is trending towards one that is more favorable for tropical development.
“Finally, the level of shear as compared to average has fallen to near or below average across the Caribbean and the central and eastern Atlantic. All of these signals say to me that conditions may be favorable to even quite favorable for tropical development throughout August and September.”
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