SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN - Invest 95-L located 1000 miles to the East of the Southern Lesser Antilles is a trough of low pressure along 45 West Longitude which is now being monitored for potential development over the next couple of days, Crown Weather reported on Sunday.
“Satellite imagery indicates that Invest 95-L is producing shower and thunderstorm activity, however, much of it is disorganized. With that said, a close look at the visible imagery reveals that there seems to be some spin developing to the cloud pattern and we may see an actual low-pressure system form from this area of disturbed weather within the next 12-24 hours.
“Taking a look at the environmental conditions around Invest 95-L indicates that there is very little wiggle room between a favorable environment and a unfavorable environment for this system. Wind shear of up to 30 to 40 knots is located north of 14 North Latitude with less than 15 knots of shear indicated along and south of 12 North Latitude. In addition, there is also quite a bit of dry air located close to Invest 95-L and it wouldn't take much for this system to pull in this dry air.
“Turning to the latest model guidance reveals that most of the guidance do forecast at least some development from Invest 95-L. The GFS model guidance forecasts some development to a tropical depression and maybe a tropical storm by late Monday into Tuesday. In addition, the GFS model guidance forecasts will move right across Barbados and the southern Lesser Antilles as a small tropical depression or maybe a tropical storm late Tuesday. Beyond this, the GFS model guidance forecasts weakening and dissipation due to very unfavorable conditions in the Caribbean by the middle to last parts of this week.
“The Canadian model guidance also forecasts development into a tropical storm by Monday night or Tuesday morning with Invest 95-L moving across Barbados and the southern Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. Beyond this, the Canadian model guidance forecasts Invest 95-L to remain a tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean on Wednesday before it weakens and dissipates in the western Caribbean on Thursday due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
“The European model guidance forecasts minimal development and this could be due to the potential small size of this system. The European model, in the past, has been known to “miss” small systems that end up developing. The European ensemble guidance forecasts there is a 40 percent chance for development of Invest 95-L between today and Tuesday.
“Even though I think that there is a chance Invest 95-L may develop into a tropical depression or even a tropical storm, its life as a depression or a storm is likely to be short lived. The reason why is because once this system moves into the eastern and especially the central Caribbean, it will encounter very strong westerly wind shear which is likely to lead to weakening and dissipation by the middle to end of this week.
“Until then, however, I agree with the National Hurricane Center and think that there is a 40 percent chance that Invest 95-L will become a tropical depression and maybe a tropical storm. The most likely time frame for this to happen will be either on Monday or Tuesday as it approaches the southern Lesser Antilles.
“For everyone in the Southern Lesser Antilles and Barbados, Tropical Storm conditions are possible starting on Tuesday afternoon and continuing into Tuesday evening. These conditions will include heavy rain squalls, up to 40 mph winds and rough seas which are expected throughout Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening across the southern Lesser Antilles and Barbados. Improving weather conditions are expected late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as this system moves into the eastern Caribbean,” Crown Weather reported on Sunday.