SINT MAARTEN/ATLANTIC OCEAN - Thunderstorm activity with the depression out in the middle of the open Atlantic has progressively increased throughout the day today (Thursday), according to Crown Weather.
“In addition, an eye like feature has also been noted on satellite imagery today (Ed Thursday). Given these trends, Tropical Depression #1 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Arlene and according to satellite estimated wind data, Arlene has 45 to 50 mph maximum winds.
“The future of Arlene could be somewhat interesting as the global model guidance has trended slower with the absorption of Arlene by a larger non-tropical low pressure system. A close look at the GFS and European model guidance reveals that Arlene may not be completely absorbed by the larger low pressure system until Sunday.
“Based on this data, it would not surprise me to see Arlene hang around right into this weekend. In addition, a couple of the intensity guidance members forecast that Arlene could continue to strengthen right into this weekend.
“With that said, a majority of the other intensity guidance members forecast gradual weakening over the next couple of days. At this point, some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Friday given the appearance of Arlene on satellite imagery. This will likely be followed by weakening this weekend.
“Arlene continues to be of no threat to any land areas. It should be noted that the Azores Islands could be impacted by heavy rainfall, strong winds and rough seas by the larger low pressure system during a large part of next week. Those of you with any travel plans to the Azores should be aware that the weather is likely to be quite squally during next week.”